Marine traffic safety estimation by emotional load on a navigator metric

• Grinyak V.M.

  V.M. Grinyak. Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service Vladivostok. Russia

• A.V. Shulenina. Far Eastern Federal University. Vladivostok. Russia

The paper deals with the navigational safety of marine traffic. It examines the problem of determining the degree of danger of traffic scheme employed in a certain water area. In addition to technical and natural factors, the nature of the psychological and emotional stress on navigators  should  also  be  taken  into  account  when  assessing  the  risk  of  a  traffic  pattern, which is especially important in high traffic density. Metric of this or that sections of the water area is suggested to be introduced as one of possible variations based the model ‘room-of-maneuver’ by Mitrofanov and Degre, Lefevre. The purpose of this work is to study mathematical models and traffic danger estimation techniques which are dimed to be implemented in forward-looking intellectual traffic control systems. Despite the rich arsenal of mathematical techniques for solving the problem of traffic control for various types of transport (optimization techniques, genetic algorithms, game theory techniques and others), generation of a real traffic schemes for a specific water area on the basis of formal mathematical presentation of the problem is almost impossible. The cause of it is a large number of informal locations(positions/statements) used in navigational practice, which are formed due to professional experience. That is why a traffic scheme is determined as a rule based on analysis of experts. It requires development of mathematical apparatus which allows to estimate the degree of  safety of existing traffic schemes and ensures  support in taking decisions in the process of their planning. It seems that without such optimization of traffic schemes further growth of traffic in heavy traffic areas will finally result in increase of dangerous situations. The measure of the emotional load is the degree and nature of the filling of the ‘room-of-maneuver’ chart, the ratio of dangerous and safe values of the speed and course of the vessel in conditions of intensity traffic. The characteristic values of this metric for a specific marine area are an important and informative indicator that determines the navigational safety. A promising way to estimate metrics is to use data from the Automatic Identification System. The paper presents a model of traffic data available on open Internet re-sources, a way to bring them to a form suitable for analysis. The results of the pattern safety estimation for
traffic in the Tsugaru Strait and the Tokyo Bay are given.
Keywords:  marine safety, ship collision, trajectory, speed, course, marine traffic, AIS.